When Human Judgment And Big

Accountability Doesn't Mean Apologizing.

I've Become Invested With This Symbolic Power. It Really Does Transcend What I'm Actually Doing And What I Actually Deserve.

If There's A Major Foreign Policy Event, The President Gets On Tv, The Congress Doesn't.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

Basically, Books Were A Luxury Item Before The Printing Press.