I've Become Invested With This

Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident And Read Way Too Much Into A Hot Or Cold Streak.

All I Know Is That I Have Way More Stuff That I Want To Write About Than I Possibly Have Time To.

I Think A Lot Of Journal Articles Should Really Be Blogs.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

New Ideas Are Sometimes Found In The Most Granular Details Of A Problem Where Few Others Bother To Look.