True Intuitive Expertise Is Learned

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

It's Nonsense To Say Money Doesn't Buy Happiness, But People Exaggerate The Extent To Which More Money Can Buy More Happiness.

My Interest In Well-being Evolved From My Interest In Decision Making - From Raising The Question Of Whether People Know What They Will Want In The Future And Whether The Things That People Want For Themselves Will Make Them Happy.

There's A Tendency To Look At Investments In Isolation. Investors Focus On The Risk Of Individual Securities.

Intuitive Diagnosis Is Reliable When People Have A Lot Of Relevant Feedback. But People Are Very Often Willing To Make Intuitive Diagnoses Even When They're Very Likely To Be Wrong.