There's A Tendency To Look

Overconfidence Is A Powerful Source Of Illusions, Primarily Determined By The Quality And Coherence Of The Story That You Can Construct, Not By Its Validity.

To Know Whether You Can Trust A Particular Intuitive Judgment, There Are Two Questions You Should Ask: Is The Environment In Which The Judgment Is Made Sufficiently Regular To Enable Predictions From The Available Evidence? The Answer Is Yes For Diagnosticians, No For Stock Pickers. Do The Professionals Have An Adequate Opportunity To Learn The Cues And The Regularities? The Answer Here Depends On The Professionals' Experience And On The Quality And Speed With Which They Discover Their Mistakes.

Facts That Challenge Basic Assumptions-and Thereby Threaten People's Livelihood And Self-esteem-are Simply Not Absorbed. The Mind Does Not Digest Them.

We Are Prone To Overestimate How Much We Understand About The World And To Underestimate The Role Of Chance In Events.

There Is General Agreement Among Researchers That Nearly All Stock Pickers, Whether They Know It Or Not-and Few Of Them Do-are Playing A Game Of Chance.