The Idea That The Future

By Their Very Nature, Heuristic Shortcuts Will Produce Biases, And That Is True For Both Humans And Artificial Intelligence, But The Heuristics Of Ai Are Not Necessarily The Human Ones.

I Would Be Wary Of Experts' Intuition, Except When They Deal With Something That They Have Dealt With A Lot In The Past.

People Who Face A Difficult Question Often Answer An Easier One Instead, Without Realizing It.

People Just Hate The Idea Of Losing. Any Loss, Even A Small One, Is Just So Terrible To Contemplate That They Compensate By Buying Insurance, Including Totally Absurd Policies Like Air Travel.

Doubts Are Suppressed By Groups... But Remember That The Internal Incentives That Shape How The Group Perceives Risks And Rewards May Be Very Different From The Reality Of The Risks And Rewards In The External Marketplace. Those Incentives Can Distort Risk Perception.