The Idea That The Future

Most Successful Pundits Are Selected For Being Opinionated, Because It's Interesting, And The Penalties For Incorrect Predictions Are Negligible. You Can Make Predictions, And A Year Later People Won't Remember Them.

Intuitive Diagnosis Is Reliable When People Have A Lot Of Relevant Feedback. But People Are Very Often Willing To Make Intuitive Diagnoses Even When They're Very Likely To Be Wrong.

Negotiations Over A Shrinking Pie Are Especially Difficult Because They Require An Allocation Of Losses. People Tend To Be Much More Easygoing When They Bargain Over An Expanding Pie.

Happiness Is Determined By Factors Like Your Health, Your Family Relationships And Friendships, And Above All By Feeling That You Are In Control Of How You Spend Your Time.

Adaptation Seems To Be, To A Substantial Extent, A Process Of Reallocating Your Attention.