On Average, People Should Be

One Of The Pervasive Risks That We Face In The Information Age, As I Wrote In The Introduction, Is That Even If The Amount Of Knowledge In The World Is Increasing, The Gap Between What We Know And What We Think We Know May Be Widening.

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.

I'm Not Trying To Do Anything Too Tricky.

We're Living In A World Where Google Beats Gallup.

Plenty Of Pundits Have Really High Iqs, But They Don't Have Any Discipline In How They Look At The World, And So It Leads To A Lot Of Bullshit, Basically.