I Have To Think About

In Politics People Build Whole Reputations Off Of Getting One Thing Right.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

When Human Judgment And Big Data Intersect There Are Some Funny Things That Happen

Actually, One Of The Better Indicators Historically Of How Well The Stock Market Will Do Is Just A Gallup Poll, When You Ask Americans If You Think It's A Good Time To Invest In Stocks, Except It Goes The Opposite Direction Of What You Would Expect. When The Markets Going Up, It In Fact Makes It More Prone Toward Decline.

If You Have Reason To Think That Yesterday's Forecast Went Wrong, There Is No Glory In Sticking To It.