Caesar Recognized The Omens, But

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

If The State Polls Are Right, Then Mr. Obama Will Win The Electoral College. If You Can't Acknowledge That After A Day When Mr. Obama Leads 19 Out Of 20 Swing-state Polls, Then You Should Abandon The Pretense That Your Goal Is To Inform Rather Than Entertain The Public.

One Of The Pervasive Risks That We Face In The Information Age, As I Wrote In The Introduction, Is That Even If The Amount Of Knowledge In The World Is Increasing, The Gap Between What We Know And What We Think We Know May Be Widening.

I Don't Think That Somebody Who Is Observing Or Predicting Behavior Should Also Be Participating In The 'experiment.'