Banks Are Run By Executives,

Courage Is Willingness To Take The Risk Once You Know The Odds. Optimistic Overconfidence Means You Are Taking The Risk Because You Don't Know The Odds. It's A Big Difference.

The Confidence People Have In Their Beliefs Is Not A Measure Of The Quality Of Evidence But Of The Coherence Of The Story The Mind Has Managed To Construct.

If People Can Construct A Simple And Coherent Story, They Will Feel Confident Regardless Of How Well Grounded It Is In Reality.

I Have Always Emphasized The Willingness To Discard.

People Exaggerate Their Confidence In Their Plans - Something We Call The Planning Fallacy... The Existence Of The Plan Tends To Induce Overconfidence.