You Don't Want To Treat

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

When You Get Into Statistical Analysis, You Don't Really Expect To Achieve Fame. Or To Become An Internet Meme. Or Be Parodied By 'the Onion' - Or Be The Subject Of A Cartoon In 'the New Yorker.' I Guess I'm Kind Of An Outlier There.

We Need To Stop, And Admit It: We Have A Prediction Problem. We Love To Predict Things—and We Aren’t Very Good At It.

We Look At All The Polls, Not Just The Gallup Poll. So, It's Kind Of Like If You Have, You Know, Four Out Of Five Doctors Agree That Reducing Cholesterol Reduces Your Risk Of A Heart Attack, Gallup Is Like The Fifth Doctor.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge.