We Can Be Blind To

The 'instagram Generation' Now Experiences The Present As An Anticipated Memory

An Executive Might Have A Very Strong Intuition That A Given Product Has Promise, Without Considering The Probability That A Rival Is Already Ahead In Developing The Same Product.

Endlessly Amused By People's Minds.

The Amount Of Success It Takes For Leaders To Become Overconfident Isn't Terribly Large.

Most Successful Pundits Are Selected For Being Opinionated, Because It's Interesting, And The Penalties For Incorrect Predictions Are Negligible. You Can Make Predictions, And A Year Later People Won't Remember Them.