There's A Tendency To Look

There Are Some Conditions Where You Have To Trust Your Intuition.

Most Successful Pundits Are Selected For Being Opinionated, Because It's Interesting, And The Penalties For Incorrect Predictions Are Negligible. You Can Make Predictions, And A Year Later People Won't Remember Them.

This Is The Essence Of Intuitive Heuristics: When Faced With A Difficult Question, We Often Answer An Easier One Instead, Usually Without Noticing The Substitution.

Clearly, The Decision-making That We Rely On In Society Is Fallible. It's Highly Fallible, And We Should Know That.

Knowing The Importance Of Luck, You Should Be Particularly Suspicious When Highly Consistent Patterns Emerge From The Comparison Of Successful And Less Successful Firms. In The Presence Of Randomness, Regular Patterns Can Only Be Mirages.