Now, I Only Play Very

By Far The Most Significant Event In Finance During The Past Decade Has Been The Extraordinary Development And Expansion Of Financial Derivatives.

We Cannot Rule Out A Situation In Which A Preemptive Policy Tightening Becomes Necessary, ... Such Caution Seems Especially Warranted With Regard To The Sharp Rise In Equity Prices During The Past Two Years. These Gains Have Obviously Raised Questions Of Sustainability.

Any Onset Of Increased Investor Caution Elevates Risk Premiums And, As A Consequence, Lowers Asset Values And Promotes The Liquidation Of The Debt That Supported Higher Asset Prices, ... This Is The Reason That History Has Not Dealt Kindly With The Aftermath Of Protracted Periods Of Low Risk Premiums.

In The Absence Of The Gold Standard, There Is No Way To Protect Savings From Confiscation Through Inflation. There Is No Safe Store Of Value.

But How Do We Know When Irrational Exuberance Has Unduly Escalated Asset Values, Which Then Become Subject To Unexpected And Prolonged Contractions As They Have In Japan Over The Past Decade?