Organizations May Be Better Able

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

People Who Are Cognitively Busy Are Also More Likely To Make Selfish Choices, Use Sexist Language, And Make Superficial Judgments In Social Situations.

The Premise Of This Book Is That It Is Easier To Recognize Other People's Mistakes Than Your Own.

If People Do Not Know What Is Going To Make Them Better Off Or Give Them Pleasure, Then The Idea That You Can Trust People To Do What Will Give Them Pleasure Becomes Questionable.

The Illusion Of Skill Is Not Only An Individual Aberration; It Is Deeply Ingrained In The Culture Of The [investment Management] Industry.