First Of All, I Think

If The State Polls Are Right, Then Mr. Obama Will Win The Electoral College. If You Can't Acknowledge That After A Day When Mr. Obama Leads 19 Out Of 20 Swing-state Polls, Then You Should Abandon The Pretense That Your Goal Is To Inform Rather Than Entertain The Public.

When You Get Into Statistical Analysis, You Don't Really Expect To Achieve Fame. Or To Become An Internet Meme. Or Be Parodied By 'the Onion' - Or Be The Subject Of A Cartoon In 'the New Yorker.' I Guess I'm Kind Of An Outlier There.

In Baseball You Have Terrific Data And You Can Be A Lot More Creative With It.

You Can Build A Statistical Model And That's All Well And Good, But If You're Dealing With A New Type Of Financial Instrument, For Example, Or A New Type Of Situation - Then The Choices You're Making Are Pretty Arbitrary In A Lot Of Respects.

The Public Is Even More Pessimistic About The Economy Than Even The Most Bearish Economists Are.