Each Firm Held Its Rope;

People Really Don't Like To Hear Success Explained Away As Luck — Especially Successful People. As They Age, And Succeed, People Feel Their Success Was Somehow Inevitable. They Don't Want To Acknowledge The Role Played By Accident In Their Lives. There Is A Reason For This: The World Does Not Want To Acknowledge It Either. If You Use Better Data, You Can Find Better Values; There Are Always Market Inefficiencies To Exploit, And So On. But It Has A Broader And Less Practical Message: Don't Be Deceived By Life's Outcomes. Life's Outcomes, While Not Entirely Random, Have A Huge Amount Of Luck Baked Into Them. Above All, Recognize That If You Have Had Success, You Have Also Had Luck — And With Luck Comes Obligation.

The Pleasure Of Rooting For Goliath Is That You Can Expect To Win. The Pleasure Of Rooting For David Is That, While You Don’t Know What To Expect, You Stand At Least A Chance Of Being Inspired.

Managers Tend To Pick A Strategy That Is The Least Likely To Fail, Rather Then To Pick A Strategy That Is Most Efficient," Said Palmer. " The Pain Of Looking Bad Is Worse Than The Gain Of Making The Best Move.

He Was Ignorant, But A Lot Of People Mistook Ignorance For Stupidity, And Knowingness For Intelligence.

In Their Leaders, Advisers, And Experts, People Much Prefer Overconfidence, Total Certainty, To Any Kind Of Doubt.